This summer our Subaru turned over 130,000 miles. After ten years, it was time for a new car. My wife and I were keen on buying a battery electric vehicle (BEV) but were put off by 1) the friggin’ high cost, and 2) the not-quite-stellar charge range. We live in a part of the country where public chargers are few and far between—when they’re working.
So, we compromised and bought a RAV4 hybrid. We didn’t eliminate our driving carbon footprint, but we did cut it in half. We get twice the gas mileage of our trade-in. And we contributed to the lithium-ion (Li-on) economy. Hybrids have a small Li-on battery pack that charges during braking or when coasting downhill. It supplements the engine during acceleration and when going uphill. Bottom line, we went from 27 mpg to well-north of 40.
For a time, BEV sales by legacy auto makers, and a few noteworthy startups were gaining momentum. But the initial enthusiasm has cooled. These early models, based on Li-on technology, often offered less than 300-mile range. Their battery packs can overheat in hot weather, don’t perform well in sub-freezing temperatures, and charge very slowly if at all. While not as frequently as earlier iterations of the tech, batteries occasionally burst into flames. And there was the cost premium: anywhere from $10 to $15 thousand dollars. Ouch.
So car companies and battery manufacturers are retooling to bring down prices to make BEVs price-competitive with cars powered by internal combustion engines.
In the meantime hybrid sales are booming as BEV sales are languishing. We bought our car knowing that battery technology is steadily improving, offering the promise of greater range, lower cost, and improved product safety. Our next car will definitely be a battery electric vehicle. Let’s examine what car and battery makers are doing to give me so much faith in the future.
A bit of a disclaimer here. If you've tried to buy a new vehicle recently, you’ve noticed how difficult it can be to make apples-to-apples comparisons of different makes. I think that’s deliberate. It forces you to depend on their marketing when deciding what to purchase. I’m seeing the same trend when it comes to automotive battery tech. I’ve done my best to ferret out comparable data regarding chemistry and performance. But sometimes companies are loathe to reveal trade secrets. If my information is inaccurate, please bring that (and your source) to my attention. I’ll happily publish a correction.
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Let’s examine what strategies certain auto makers and their partners are pursuing. We’ll compare the basic battery chemistries, energy densities (measured or postulated), charge cycles, range, a few notable pros and cons, and when to expect them to come to market.
Today, most manufacturers rely on the same Li-on battery chemistry, with certain variations in materials depending on what aspects of performance they seek to emphasize. Generally, the negative electrode (cathode) of a conventional Li-on cell is lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NMC) or lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxides (NCA).The positive electrode is typically a metal oxide or phosphate. The electrolyte is a lithium salt in an organic solvent. The lithium ions migrate toward the cathode during battery use, and toward the anode when charging.
Organic solvents are used because voltages are so high that if water was used it would dissociate into hydrogen and oxygen gas. While using alternative solvents reduces the explosive potential, overheated and/or damaged batteries can and do burn. Tesla experienced high-profile incidents in the past, driving them to adopt a newer battery chemistry (more on that below).
Energy density measures the amount of power a battery can store and restore relative to its volume or weight. It's usually expressed in watt-hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) or watt-hours per liter (Wh/L). A watt-hour is the equivalent of using one watt for one hour.
Higher energy density can be achieved by adjusting electrolyte chemistries and/or electrode materials. Doing so can increase a battery’s range, or allows the same range, but with a smaller battery. Typical automotive Li-on batteries have energy densities between150-220 Wh/kg, or 400 Wh/L.
Most auto companies only guarantee battery performance for 1,500 to 2,000 charge cycles.
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Tesla Of all BEV manufacturers, Tesla is the farthest along in the race for next-generation batteries. They’ve already teamed up with CATL, a Chinese battery manufacturer and begun selling Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries in their standard mileage trims. LFP uses a liquid electrolyte comparable to other Li-on batteries. They have a lower energy density, 205 Wh/kg. LFP packs are exceptionally stable, lasting anywhere from 3,000 to 10,000 charge cycles. They’re also less flammable than Li-on batteries. They're cheaper to produce, are considered more ethical because they use less cobalt and nickel, and can rely on a North American supply chain.
Note the lower energy density. Tesla considers the larger battery pack a reasonable compromise given the benefits. LFP batteries suffer from reduced range and longer charge times in sub-freezing weather, similar to other Li-ons. Tesla began offering LFP packs in China in 2021, and in the US in 2022.
Ford When Ford announced they would revamp their BEV manufacturing to reduce model costs, switching to LFP batteries was part of that strategy. Like Tesla, they have teamed up with CATL, licensing that company’s process for their Blue Oval Battery Pack facility currently under construction in Michigan. Like Tesla, Ford is banking on lower manufacturing cost, controllable supply chain, higher durability and lower flammability. Today, they deploy LFP tech in their Mustang Mach-e and F-150 Lightning models. Blue Oval will go on line in 2026.
General Motors GM is gambling that it can realize cost-savings with its Ultium nickel-cobalt-manganese-aluminum NCMA battery system. It's flexible, uses larger individual cells and uses less cobalt, nickel, and lithium than comparable Li-on batteries. GM claims that the Ultium system costs less than$100 per kilowatt-hour to make. Because the system is Li-on, it has a greater energy density, 280 Wh/kg, than LFP chemistry. GM claims a range of 500 to 600mi/charge. Deployed since 2023, Ultium will be adapted to more models as battery manufacturing capacity increases.
GM has also embraced a longer-term battery strategy. Along with
BMW,
Hyundai,
Rivian and
Stellantis, they are testing an oxide solid state battery provided by Samsung. They've released little detail about their batteries, but claims they have twice the energy density of liquid electrolyte Li-on batteries. Their estimated range will be over 600 miles. Because they’re solid, they’re inflammable, and should offer better performance in both cold and hot weather. One downside will be higher cost. They’re expected to be offered in premium models first, beginning in 2027.
Volkswagen has been testing a prototype battery supplied by American startup Quantumscape. Details have been sparse, but CleanTechnica reports that the architecture features a semi solid state ceramic separator with a self-organizing anode and a liquid organic electrolyte/cathode. The prototype delivers an energy density350 Wh/L. They are expected to last up to 4000 charge cycles. No target release date has been announced, but a streamlined manufacturing process should be operational in 2025.
Toyota has been developing a solid state battery with manufacturer TDK. Popular Mechanics describes the tech as a solid state ceramic-oxide electrolyte with lithium alloy anodes. It could charge in minutes and provides a whopping energy density of 1000 Wh/L, promising a 750 mile range. Prototype battery life is around 1000 charge cycles. One hurdle preventing early adoption is the fragility of the ceramic. Think how durable your grandmother’s ceramic figurine was when you dropped it. Toyota has delayed deployment in the past and currently predicts their batteries will be available in 2027.
The
US Military is also funding solid state battery development through the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). This summer, ION Storage Systems reported its intent to scale up production of its solid state porous ceramic design, funded in part with a DARPA grant. The battery architecture blends lithium metal with a porous ceramic electrolyte. These are expected to be nonflammable. No figures have been provided by ION, but they claim energy density exceeds Li-on. As of August 1, the prototypes have achieved 800 charge cycles. The goal of the $20 million grant is a commercially available battery in three years, 2027.
One final option is
NFC’s Quantino 25 prototype BEV. They’ve ditched the battery entirely for a refillable bi-ION electrolyte. The reservoir is built into the vehicle body. According to NFC’s website, their vehicle achieves a range of over 1,200 miles(2,000 km) per refill. Details are sparse, but the reaction of the electrolyte generates electric current which powers the car. It’s claimed to be nonflammable and environmentally friendly.
NFC is seeking venture funding to construct a research and manufacturing campus. Their intent is to license the manufacturing to a third party. If their assumptions fall into place, they could potentially put their tech on the street in about three years. With the caveat that they’ll offer adequate electrolyte refill locations.
So, there you have it, our brief overview of the battery technology that we should be able to drive by 2030. Other chemistry and architecture options are out there: sodium, lithium-sulfur, and graphene, to name a few. But they are not nearly as developed as the tech we’ve just discussed.
Over the next few years, we should see prices drop dramatically. Improvements in manufacturing techniques, cheaper raw materials, and shorter supply chains will all drive prices lower. All while battery performance and safety improve. We’re on the threshold of a golden age of electric vehicles.
Happy Reading,
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Want a deeper dive? Check out these sources.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240319-the-most-sustainable-alternatives-to-lithium-batterieshttps://electrek.co/2024/06/27/anodeless-compressionless-solid-state-battery-ion/https://ionstoragesystems.com/https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gadgets/a61197028/solid-state-batteries-breakthrough-tdk-energy-density/https://www.tdk.com/en/news_center/press/20240617_01.htmlhttps://www.solidpowerbattery.com/all-solid-state-batteries/default.aspxhttps://www.androidauthority.com/lithium-ion-battery-alternatives-3356834/https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2024/07/09/blueoval-battery-park-michigan-construction-progresses-alongside.html#:~:text=%E2%80%9CBlueOval%20Battery%20Park%20Michigan%20will,programs%20and%20energy%20supply%20chain.
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/lfp-battery-in-your-next-ev-tesla-and-others-say-yeshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultium#:~:text=Battery%20materials%20will%20be%20supplied,by%20CATL%20with%20cylindrical%20packaging.
